I have read countless forecasts over the past few weeks compounded by the fact that most of the authors were labouring under the mistaken impression that we are entering a new decade. That simply shows that none of them can count to ten and so it’s difficult to rely on anything else they may have to say, particularly about the future. I especially enjoyed The Guardian which said on 22^nd December “House prices to continue rising in 2010.” And then on 28^th December stated “House prices predicted to fall in 2010.” So they’ll get that one right, then.

Winston Churchill said “I always avoid prophesying beforehand, because it is much better policy to prophesy after the event has already taken place.” And I will take his advice. So if you’re reading this blog to find out which stocks to buy, or who will win the General Election, or the FIFA World Cup then don’t bother.  I wanted to blog at the beginning of a New Year about resolutions or forecasts so I did plenty of research and then I came upon a piece which summed it all up for me. So here it is.
 

Be Sceptical About 2010 Forecasts, Even This One

By Jo Owen                                                January 5th, 2010 @ 2:33 am

I learned to tell fortunes from a fortune teller near Timbuktu. He promised me a great fortune in the future, for which he charged me a great fortune in the present. I suspected he could have become a very good consultant. He knew all the answers, even when he did not know the question, and he spoke in a language I barely understood. Perfect.

In any event, I have now consulted some chicken bones, read the tea leaves at the bottom of my cup and have gazed long and hard at my crystal balls. From this, I have seen 2010, and here is what it means for you:

This is a year when persistence and patience will pay off in dealing with some difficult tasks and even more difficult colleagues. You will struggle to get the recognition you deserve. Faced with unexpected challenges, you will need to stay positive while those around you are less than supportive. Care will be needed in financial matters both at home and at work: at times, you will need to make each pound do the work of £2.

Sounds like your year ahead? If so, that’s no surprise. It is the sort of year most of us have most of the time. And that is all we need to know. We know the challenges we are likely to face and we know how we should deal with them. Doing the right thing is the tough bit.

So how can we make 2010 a great year?

1. Be clear about how you want to remember 2010 by the time you get to 2020, 2030 or even 2040. You will not remember meetings, bonuses, performance targets or pay. A year you can not remember is a wasted year: find something in work or personal life to make 2010 worth it. And then go for it. Life should be led with the “record” button on and in full Technicolor.
2. Control your destiny: if you don’t, someone else will. If you have the wrong boss, wrong assignment, wrong skills and wrong employer do not wait and hope to get lucky. Hope is not a method and luck is not a strategy.  We can always make choices, even if they are uncomfortable choices. It is better to live with our choices then with the choices someone else makes for us.
3. Stay positive. Good stuff, bad stuff and unexpected stuff will happen. We can choose how we feel about stuff. We can focus on the gloomy stuff and be gloomy, or we can focus on the good stuff and feel good. Our choice. Research shows lottery millionaires return to their previous state of gloom or happiness within about 18 months of their win. In other words, how we feel is our choice rather than something imposed on us by the fates.

All of our journeys through the next year will be different. Whatever your journey is, enjoy it. Happy New Year.

Jo Owen worked for Procter & Gamble like me and claims to have put the blue speckle in Daz and become the best nappy salesman in Birmingham. He has worked with over 80 of the best, and a couple of the worst, organisations in the world in a career which has crossed all the major continents and most industry sectors. He is a serial entrepreneur and founder of several successful start ups, including Teach First which is now one of the top ten graduate recruiters in the UK. I like his style and commend his view of the New Year to you.

But I will give one forecast for 2010. There will be four great events this year which will dominate the media.

1. From 1^st May to 31^st October Shanghai will host Expo 2010 with the theme “Better City, Better Life.” 70,000,000 visitors are expected to attend.
2. On or before Thursday 3^rd June the United Kingdom General Election must be held.
3. The FIFA World Cup will start on 11^th June with the final in Johannesburg on July 11^th. A cumulative worldwide TV audience of over 30,000,000,000 is forecast.
4. The Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 16) will take place in Mexico in December.

My forecast is that while in this country the General Election will dominate and while its on the world will stop to watch the football and while the conference on climate change should be the most important event, the event that will actually change things the most is Expo in Shanghai because it will give China the opportunity to show just how far she has come on to the world stage. The 21^st century belongs to her.
 

Copyright David C Pearson 2010 All rights reserved