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6 June 2020Global Trends Affecting VenezuelaTag(s): Foreign Affairs, Politics & Economics, People
Like most people I imagine during this lockdown I receive numerous invitations to join webinars and if I accepted all of them I would do little else. But I attended one this week which I found fascinating. My wife and I are both members of the Anglo-Chilean Society and my wife is their Secretary. A fellow member of her Committee is also married to a Chilean lady but they also spent considerable time in Venezuela and he is the Chairman of the similar British Venezuelan Society (BVS).
He hosted a webinar on the subject “Global Trends Affecting Venezuela” and was joined by Dr. Moisés Naím, a distinguished Fellow at The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and widely recognised as one of the world's leading thinkers, and Dr. Vanessa Neumann, official Representative of President Juan Guaidó to United Kingdom and Honorary President of BVS. Dr. Naím has an MSc and PhD from MIT. His former posts include Minister of Trade and Industry of Venezuela; Director, Venezuela Central Bank; Executive Director, World Bank; Professor of Business and Economics, and Dean, IESA, Venezuela; Editor-in-Chief, Foreign Policy. As well as his role at the Carnegie Endowment he is Chief International Columnist, El País and La Repubblica, and has columns carried by publications internationally. In 2013, the British magazine Prospect listed him as one of the world's leading thinkers and in 2014 and 2015 he was ranked among the top 100 influential global thought leaders by Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute (GDI) for his book The End of Power. This publication was also selected as the first book for followers of Mark Zuckerberg's 2015 book club to read. Dr Naim explained that there were six global trends that were serious at the global level affecting many countries in the world but would be even more serious in Venezuela because of the disastrous state of that country.
Venezuela is clearly a failed state. It has control of its airports and to some extent its military but not really of its land and borders. Cuba is a central player in the government of Venezuela and effectively Venezuela is an occupied state. Cuba interferes with its security, its politics and its economy and the Cuban leadership have veto power over Venezuela’s decision-making. Appointments have to be cleared in Havana. This goes back to the relationship between Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez that continues to this day and there are 20,000 Cubans involved in government positions in Venezuela.
Venezuela is a criminalised state. Its governing bodies have their hands in every pie. Venezuela is disintegrated with the world. Even before the Covid-19 crisis the number of flights in and out of the country had been substantially reduced. It is effectively isolated and broken, so its future depends on the interplay between Cuba, Russia, China and the United States. These are not happy bedfellows and there is little sign of them agreeing a common strategy to persuade Cuba to withdraw and to allow Venezuela to start to recover. If the relationship between these four powers remains in gridlock then Venezuela will continue in its present parlous state. So what opportunities are there to turn the tide? Sanctions have been tried out in different ways by the United States and by the EU but plainly they have not worked. Dr Naim has testified to the United States Senate to say that what works are sanctions that are targeted to individuals and their ecosystems. There have been successful sanctions implemented where not only key individuals were identified but also their ecosystems including their lawyers, their banks, their computer experts and the other people who help them with their finances. These have to be sustained at a high level but they can work but have not been properly tried. Some people suggest that one could offer incentives to the military to remove Maduro but that would not work either. In the present conditions the Venezuela military are under Cuban control, even repression. Cuba has had over 60 years of dictatorship and understands very well that the military is always the biggest threat. Being a military officer in Venezuela is very dangerous if you don’t show your hearty fealty to the leadership all the time. 60 countries have now shown their support for Guaidó as the official leader of the country instead of Maduro. They are certain that Maduro rigged the last election and the legitimacy of his government is irrevocably lost. He is now planning an election later this year but this is unlikely to be different. First of all it takes at least a year of preparation in a country like Venezuela where all the election equipment was burnt by the Chavez government. For any election to be credible there have to be a minimum set of conditions including independent international monitoring. Dr Naim thinks that the road to recovery will be very long. It is not like switching something on. It will require massive foreign aid and investment. This is impossible while the country is in anarchy. But it will be a fascinating project when it finally happens. Blog ArchiveBoards Business Chile Current Affairs Education Environment Foreign Affairs Future Health History In Memoriam Innovation Language & culture Language and Culture Languages & Culture Law Leadership Leadership & Management Marketing Networking Pedantry People Philanthropy Philosophy Politics & Econoimics Politics & Economics Politics and Economics Science Sport Sustainability Sustainability (or Restoration) Technology Worshipful Company of MarketorsDavid's Blog |
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